Election 2020: New survey projects runoff

• Posted on November 30, 2020November 30, 2020
• by Nana Kwesi Coomson
• Comment

A new survey has projected that next week’s presidential and Parliamentary polls will go into a second round.

According to the research by Governance Research Bureau, non of the two leading parties can secure enough votes to win at ago.

“Based on its analysis of EC certified results since 1992 and the 2020 voters register, the Bureau estimates that the NPP’s Nana Akufo Addo will poll 49.19 per cent (8,389,273 votes) with NDC’s John Mahama taking 48.27 per cent (8,233,881 votes) while the Others make do with 2.54 per cent (433,257 votes).

“Statistical tool used for the prediction was the Generalised Linear Model (GLM) whose dependent variable is the percentage of votes likely to be obtained by the parties with the independent variables being the Constituency and Parties. The release said the standard errors that emerged were 0.76 per cent of the percentage of votes that NPP obtained, 0.75 per cent for NDC and 0.32 per cent for the Other parties. The Bureau said a 95 per cent confidence interval estimate for the percentage of votes for the NPP has a lower limit of 47.69 per cent (8,134,646 votes) and upper limit of 50.68 per cent (8,646,900 votes),” the survey said.

It stressed: “The NDC has a lower limit of 46.80 per cent (7,983,123 votes) and upper limit of 49.74 per cent (8,484,639 votes) while the Other parties have a lower limit of 1.92 per cent (326,964 votes) and an upper limit of 3.16 per cent (539,550 votes)”.

Meanwhile, two surveys conducted by pollster Ben Ephson and the political science department of the University of Ghana have projected victory for incumbent Nana Akufo-Addo ahead of the polls.